Economists are jerky, but strong jobs are expected on Friday – CNN


Before the report of Friday's jobs, economists surveyed by refiners estimate that employers added 200,000 jobs in November, unemployment rate remained 3.7% and earn an average of 3.1% per year from the same average of the previous year. Numbers reflect more holidays than normal, because retailers expect a strong Christmas season.

During the last year, US employers have added an average of 215,000 jobs per month, and wages are gradually increasing because the economy has disrupted all its available workers, to provide higher salaries, better returns and more benefits to businesses Has been motivated for. Some economists It is expected that the unemployment rate will also be reduced by the end of 2019, which will fall to 3.2%. This will be the hardest labor market in 65 years.
Robert Frick, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, says, "In detail at this point, we should see a lot of wages, so I think that has finally started to be involved." Murden masala labor deficit and rebuke paycheck in Wednesday edition of the Federal Reserve Beige bookA report of employees "ghosts" on companies for far better jobs.
Growth wages can spoil Wall Street because it puts pressure on corporate profit margins and increases fear that the Fed will increase interest rates to curb inflation. but Recent statements by Fed officials, Including Mr. Joe Powell, has indicated the need to be careful about moving forward very fast.

"With the lack of inflation, this is the right time to make people more," says Frick. "As long as the expenditure is increasing, the benefits are going to increase and companies will have to invest to become more efficient, and this is a perfect one."

However, the jobs report will be land when the markets are increasingly nervous that an economic cooling period is around the corner.

An Indicator: The housing market is in the middle of a dramatic downturn because domestic inventories and sellers have been dissolved in low inventory and increasing mortgage rates. Housing is around 15% of the economy, and a decline in new domestic sales can fall into manufacturing jobs – even if falling prices for Americans to spend at one place to keep prices can be good news.

Another disturbing indication: this week was the first time since the Great Recession, the difference between "yield curve" or interest rates on bonds of 3 years and 5 years. Historically, when investors feel that short-term bonds are dangerous, economic recession almost always follows. (The difference between another closely watched pair, bonds of 2 years and 10 years, is not negative yet.)

Ultimately, reducing development in other countries can also create a drag on the US.

This does not mean that there is a necessity around recession. Most forecasts are not expected to cause any kind of accident in 2019, unless the trade war increases or the Fed's rates do not rise rapidly. This last solid job will not be reported – but many people in the far future may not be.


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